Despite the uneven housing market of 2025, experts are optimistic about the new year. That’s according to a new survey by Clever Offers, which found that 51% of real estate agents believe 2026 will be better for home buyers and sellers than 2025, compared to 49% who foresee it being the same or worse.
Realtors anticipate more affordable housing and lower mortgage rates in 2026. However, nearly all the agents surveyed also expect challenges for the market, citing economic uncertainty as the leading reason. More than half think they’ll have trouble closing deals as a result.
“Affordability is still the biggest problem, but I see it improving along the margins in 2026,” said Steve Afra, a real estate finance expert and co-founder and managing partner of Nvestor Funding. “Prices aren’t falling by much in most areas, but slower growth combined with modestly lower rates and rising incomes should give buyers a little more breathing room.”
If this holds, it would be welcome news for home buyers and sellers, 93% of whom foresee challenges to their financial stability next year. Experts say real estate agents aren’t immune to issues in 2026, either.
Agents Are Optimistic but Expect Prices to Increase
About 73% of the real estate agents surveyed expressed optimism about 2026’s mortgage rate outlook, which is likely why they also feel homes will be more affordable next year. However, this affordability won’t necessarily come from lower prices. A new analysis by Realtor.com forecasts home prices will increase by 2.2% next year.
This aligns with expectations from both realtors and prospective buyers and sellers. More than half of those planning to buy or sell a home in 2026 believe prices will rise in their local markets, and 42% of agents agree.
“While certain markets are seeing a downward trend in home prices, we are not necessarily seeing this across the board,” said Guy Barretta, who works with real estate brokerages as president of Barretta Consulting. “Markets are still at what I would consider an all-time high.”
Homes in Toledo, Ohio, are expected to see the largest price increase at 13.1%. Generally, markets throughout the Northeast and Midwest will see gains, while those in the Southeast and on the West Coast will see house prices fall. Realtor.com projects the most significant decrease will be in Florida’s Cape Coral-Fort Myers metro area at -10.2%.
Growth in personal income will likely drive housing affordability, as wages are expected to outpace inflation. The monthly payment needed to buy the average home should fall to 29.3% of a paycheck, just below the 30% affordability threshold. If this occurs, it will bring some breathing room to buyers and sellers, 48% of whom say they’ve fallen behind financially in today’s economy.
Housing Market Influencers to Watch in 2026
As the new year nears, all eyes will be on mortgage rates. Nearly 40% of agents say they’re the top factor that will influence the housing market in 2026, and 69% expect rates to fall.
“2026 looks like a normalizing year rather than a boom or bust,” Afra said. “Mortgage rates are expected to ease gradually, and that should bring more buyers off the sidelines.”
In a September report, the Fannie Mae Economic and Strategic Research (ESR) Group forecast rates to fall steadily to 5.9% by the end of next year. Other predictions are slightly less optimistic — Realtor.com, for instance, believes rates will average 6.3% in 2026. Regardless, this isn’t the only factor to watch.
For one, Afra said inventory should continue to improve as homeowners accept that mortgage rates above 5–6% are the new normal. This would lead to more transactions and a healthier, more balanced market.
More than a quarter of those surveyed by Clever Offers also expect economic conditions to influence the market. Experts agree that a 2026 recession would likely sustain the housing market’s momentum. Economists at RSM put the probability of a recession next year at 30%.
“The Fed and the government’s response to a recession is to lower interest rates, and that would create more movement in the real estate market,” said Glenn Phillips, CEO at Lake Homes Realty and Beach Homes Realty.
Challenges to the 2026 Housing Market for Buyers and Sellers
While some economic conditions could give the 2026 housing market a much-needed boost, others, such as inflation, could pose a serious risk. For instance, inflation ticked up throughout 2025, increasing construction costs. This led home builders to focus on building more expensive properties to turn a profit, keeping entry-level inventory thin.
Should inflation continue to rise, it could negate any increases in home prices. Although home values are expected to rise 2.2%, prices will actually decline slightly when adjusted for inflation. This is good news for buyers but bad news for sellers.
“Sellers will have to accept that the market isn’t handing out pandemic-style premiums anymore,” Afra said.
Homeowners’ insurance costs will also impact affordability, especially in states affected by extreme weather. Nationally, rates have risen nearly 70% over the past five years. Nebraska leads the country with an annual average premium of $6,587 — more than $4,000 higher than the national average.
Experts encourage buyers to purchase a home that fits their budget without waiting for rates to fall. Similarly, sellers should price their houses appropriately for their local market. While there’s always an opportunity to sell to a real estate investor, they tend to pay below market value. In 2026, being patient can pay off.
“Don’t get dismayed, whether a buyer or seller,” Barretta said. “In both instances, the market will come to you, which is all you can ask for.”
A Changing Landscape for Agents
Real estate agents can help buyers and sellers navigate these challenges, though they’ll face difficulties of their own. Namely, 47% of prospective home buyers and 45% of potential sellers are considering working without a realtor next year.
Agents understand the challenge, with 76% anticipating more competition from tech platforms and artificial intelligence (AI). Technology gives buyers more information than ever, and homeowners have multiple options for selling, including iBuyers and other cash-paying companies.
Phillips also expects the real estate industry to change following recent lawsuits against the National Association of Realtors (NAR) and Zillow over how agents are paid and how homes are listed.
“I think this can actually be good for the industry and consumers, but it is going to be rough getting there,” he said. “The challenge for real estate agents is that the ‘rules of engagement’ have changed, and most agents still don’t realize that.”