Winter has not even started, but parts of California’s coastline are already missing large amounts of sand. A strengthening El Niño could unfortunately bring bigger waves and make the problem worse over the next several months.
Point Dume Beach in Malibu lost an estimated 50 to 60 feet of sand during powerful summer surf. The erosion came close to undermining Westward Beach Road, which provides the only reliable vehicle access to the beach parking lot.
Other California beaches are having similar problems. Sections of Carlsbad State Beach washed away near the Tamarack parking lot, while crews in Laguna Beach had to tie one lifeguard station to the shore to keep it from being pulled into the water.
NOAA says El Niño is strengthening and has a greater than 90% chance of becoming very strong during fall and winter 2026–27. However, a powerful El Niño does not mean that every part of California will receive damaging storms.
Point Dume Lost Up to 60 Feet of Sand
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The Los Angeles Times reported that workers were placing large rocks along Westward Beach Road to protect it from additional damage. Firefighters, lifeguards and sheriff’s deputies depend on the road to reach the beach during emergencies.
The road beyond the parking lot’s pay gate remains closed. An official beach advisory says it will stay that way until further notice because of the severe erosion.
High Tides Already Interrupted Train Service
The problems are not limited to beaches. Metrolink recently suspended train service south of Laguna Niguel/Mission Viejo for several days in August because high tides threatened the tracks.
Crews added rocks and other material along the railroad before trains could return to their normal schedules. Coastal roads, parking lots and other structures could also be at risk if large winter waves arrive during unusually high tides.
Fortunately, not every beach has experienced major damage, and some of the missing sand may return naturally as gentler waves typically push sand back toward the shore during calmer months.
The Last Powerful El Niño Caused Record Erosion
California previously experienced unusually severe beach erosion during the 2015–16 El Niño. Researchers found that erosion was 76% higher than normal, while the largest waves were approximately 50% bigger than usual.
This winter’s outcome will depend on where storms develop and how they reach the coast. The greatest damage could occur if large waves, heavy rain and king tides arrive at the same time.
The problem also extends beyond one winter. USGS modeling estimates that between 24% and 75% of California’s beaches could completely erode by 2100 without projects to protect or rebuild them.