Baby Boomers Are Set to Free Up Millions of Homes, but There’s Bad News for First-Time Buyers

Between 1946 and 1964, the U.S. experienced a massive bump in birth rates as soldiers returned from World War II, eager to start their families. People born during that time are aptly known as Baby Boomers, and they represent about 20 percent of the U.S. population, according to 2024 data that was published in 2026 by Pew Research. 

Their older counterparts (their parents) are known as the Silent Generation, and according to Realtor.com, these two groups are set to make massive waves in the world of real estate over the next 10 years as they downsize, move to assisted living facilities, or pass away.

And while that is expected to add an abundance of inventory back into the real estate market—a figure the outlet estimates to amount to around 13.9 million homes—it’s unlikely to provide the relief that first-time homebuyers are looking for. 

That’s not just because of the pace at which these homes will hit the market (they will be staggered over the next decade). Instead, it’s because not enough of these properties will be the traditional starter homes first-time homebuyers are on the hunt for. 

They Call This ‘Generational Housing Succession’

According to Realtor.com’s report, 13.9 million homes are expected to end up on the market due to something called Generational Housing Succession, which is what happens when the homes occupied by older generations are listed for sale or inherited by family members. The outlet says this succession period will happen between 2026 and 2036, and will add an estimated 3.5 million more homes than the last decade’s succession did.

Generational Housing Succession isn’t new, but due to the size of the Baby Boomer generation, this upcoming wave is expected to be more robust than prior years.

There Won’t Be as Many Starter Houses on the Market

First-time homebuyers who are hoping to take advantage of the influx (more inventory tends to mean lower prices) may not see the relief they are looking for. That’s because Realtor.com reports that only .38 million of the homes listed as part of the succession wave will qualify as starter homes. (Those with 0-2 bedrooms).

That’s because the estimated retention rate for starter homes lands at around 70.7 percent, which means that most of the Baby Boomers will continue to hold onto these properties. Instead, a lot of the homes hitting the market will be family homes (those with three to four bedrooms) or larger homes (those with 5 or more bedrooms).

That means people looking to upgrade to a larger space will likely make out the best in this generational handoff, while those who are still looking to get their foot in the door will still find themselves struggling to find inventory.

According to Zillow, finding an affordable starter home in the U.S. can be a struggle. These homes tend to average $198,648, and the demand for them has outpaced the demand for other types of homes across the country.

That being said, Zillow says there are still places where these homes can be found across the country, and it includes spots like Birmingham, Alabama, and Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. Of course, that information may not help people living in places with higher costs of living, making the Realtor.com news a hard pill for some first-time homebuyers to swallow.